NYCB Radar
2020.04.14 19:40
하버드 연구소, 코로나19 사회적 거리두기 2022년까지 필요할 수도
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코로나19(COVID-19)가 정점에 이르렀나? 언제 경제활동을 재개할 수 있을까? 사회적 거리두기는 언제까지 필요할까?
하버드 질병연구소에서는 어느 정도의 사회적 거리두기가 2022년까지 필요할 가능성을 제기했다. 이들은 사스(SARS-CoV-2) 연구에 의거해 코로나19의 계절성, 면역성 및 교차 면역성 추정치를 사용했으며, 2024년에 재발할 가능성이 있으며 2022년까지 장기간, 혹은 간헐적인 사회적 거리두기가 필요하다고 밝혔다.
<요약>
It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 from time series data from the USA to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793
Harvard Researchers Say Some Social Distancing May Be Needed Into 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/harvard-researchers-say-some-distancing-may-be-needed-into-2022
